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Nuclear Energy: Technology Roadmap
The probability of generating almost one quarter of global electricity from nuclear power by 2050 and contributing significantly to cutting greenhouse gas emissions was the highlight of the Nuclear Energy Technology Roadmap, presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on June 16 at the East Asia Climate Forum in Seoul. Obviously, this will require the acceleration of the current global nuclear capacity for generating electricity from 370 GW to 1,200 GW, which represents an increase from 14 percent 24 percent. Just to put this projection into a proper perspective, it is not just a simple jump of 10 percent in the generation of world nuclear electricity but this projection is designed very carefully taking into consideration the anticipated electricity demand when the world population is estimated to be 9.1 billion in 2050. This is indeed a colossal undertaking.
China, India, and South Korea, participating countries, at the G8 Summit at Japan in 2008, had requested the IEA to prepare roadmaps for advanced innovative energy technologies for urgently deploying and fostering clean energy around the world. The emphasis of the request was to make sure that the technology roadmaps are supported with a wide range of instruments such as transparent regulatory frameworks, economic and fiscal incentives, and public/private partnerships to encourage private sector investments in new energy technologies. The base for this request was the recognition that current trends in energy supply and use were clearly unsustainable – economically, environmentally and socially. It was also realized that without decisive action, energy‐related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will more than double by 2050, increased oil demand will heighten concerns over the security of supplies and this was not acceptable to the G8 member countries.
After working with governments and industry in all major economies around the world and collaborating with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the IEA started responding to the request by developing a series of Energy Technology Roadmaps. The domain of the roadmaps included 19 demand-side and supply-side technologies and the objective was to advance global development and uptake of key technologies needed to reach a 50 percent CO2 emissions reduction by 2050. This article is dedicated to deal only with nuclear energy which is one of the 19 selected technologies.
Looking at the current capacity of nuclear energy, at the end of 2009, there were 436 power reactors in operation in 30 countries around the world, totalling 370 GW of installed nuclear capacity. According to the graph presented below, the share of nuclear energy in countries with operating reactors ranges from less than 2 percent to more than 75 percent. Overall, the current nuclear power provides around 14 percent of global electricity. Nuclear and hydropower are the only low-carbon sources presently providing significant amounts of energy. It is interesting to note that the existing nuclear generation of electricity avoids annual CO2 emissions of about 2.9 billion tonnes compared to coal-fired generation, or about 24 percent of annual power sector emissions.
Here is a graph that illustrates the share of nuclear energy by each country around the world:
The share of Nuclear Power in Total Electricity, 2009 (%)
Note: Lithuania closed its only nuclear plant at the end of 2009 and now has no nuclear capacity
Source: IAEA PRIS
.
Looking at the future of nuclear energy, the following table demonstrates the Nuclear Power Plants under Construction, as at end 2009:
|
No |
Country |
Number of Units |
Net Capacity (MW) |
|
1 |
Argentina |
1 |
692 |
|
2 |
Bulgaria |
2 |
1,906 |
|
3 |
China |
20 |
19,920 |
|
4 |
Finland |
1 |
1,600 |
|
5 |
France |
5 |
2,708 |
|
6 |
India |
5 |
2.708 |
|
7 |
Iran |
1 |
915 |
|
8 |
Japan |
1 |
1,325 |
|
9 |
Korea |
6 |
6,520 |
|
10 |
Pakistan |
1 |
300 |
|
11 |
Russia |
9 |
6.996 |
|
12 |
Slovak Republic |
2 |
782 |
|
13 |
Chinese Taipei |
2 |
2,600 |
|
14 |
Ukraine |
2 |
1,900 |
|
15 |
United States |
1 |
1,165 |
|
TOTAL |
55 |
50,929 |
Source: IAEA PRIS
It is clear from the table presented above that at the end of 2009, 55 new power reactors were officially under construction in 14 countries which are expected to add around 50 GW of new capacity to existing capacity of 370 GW. Of these, China had the largest programme, with 20 units under construction and Russia has 9 large units under construction. Among OECD countries, Korea had the largest expansion underway with 6 units, but Finland, France, Japan and the Slovak Republic were each building one or two new units. In the United States, a long-stalled nuclear project is reactivated.
Here is the proposed Roadmap Action Plan which explains what is needed to be done, when and by whom in order to achieve the targets by 2050:
Roadmap Action Plan:
|
No. |
Description |
Milestones |
Actors |
|
|
1 |
ACTIONS LED BY GOVERNMENTS AND OTHER PUBLIC BODIES |
|||
|
1.1 |
Policy Support: |
|||
|
1.1.1 |
Provide clear and sustained political support for a nuclear energy programme, as part of a national strategy to meet energy and environmental policy objectives. |
In place in several major countries; for other countries pursuing a nuclear programme, by 2015. |
|
|
|
1.1.2 |
Communicate with stakeholders and the public to explain the role of nuclear energy in national energy strategy, seeking to build public support through involvement in the policy-making process. |
Ongoing, as nuclear programmes are launched or re-activated. |
|
|
|
1.1.3 |
Work with the nuclear and electricity industries to ensure a co-ordinated approach to overcoming obstacles to nuclear development, especially where nuclear energy is being used for the first time or after a long period with no new nuclear capacity. |
Ongoing, as nuclear programmes are launched or re-activated. |
|
|
|
1.1.4 |
Given that nuclear power plants require very large investments with long pay-back periods, consider providing some form of government support or guarantee for private sector investment in new nuclear plants, where the risk reward ratio would otherwise deter potential investors. |
For relevant countries, by 2015. |
|
|
|
1.1.5 |
Encourage investment in low-carbon electricity sources, including new nuclear capacity, through policies and measures designed to reduce CO2 emissions, such as carbon trading schemes, carbon taxes or mandates on electricity suppliers to use low-carbon sources. The eventual aim should be to encourage the most cost-effective emissions reductions through technology neutral measures. |
For countries pursuing a nuclear programme, by 2015- 20. |
|
|
|
1.1.6 |
Put in place policies and measures to ensure adequate long term funding for management and disposal of radioactive wastes and for decommissioning, and establish the necessary legal and organisational framework for the development and timely implementation of plans for radioactive waste management and disposal. |
Implemented in many countries with nuclear energy; for other countries pursuing a nuclear programme, in advance of reactor operation, by 2015- 20. |
|
|
|
1.2 |
Legal and Regulatory Frameworks: |
|||
|
1.2.1 |
For countries with existing nuclear programmes, ensure that the system of nuclear energy-related legislation and regulatory oversight provides an appropriate balance between protecting the public and the environment while providing the certainty and timeliness required for investment decisions, and make reforms if required. Where applicable, this should extend to uranium mining and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. |
Reforms introduced in some countries; others may need to follow by 2015. |
|
|
|
1.2.2 |
For countries launching new nuclear programmes, observe international best practice in developing the necessary nuclear energy legislation and regulatory institutions, to ensure that they are both effective and efficient. |
For relevant countries, by 2015-20. |
|
|
|
1.2.3 |
Ensure that the structure of electricity markets and, where appropriate, carbon markets supports the large, long-term investments required in nuclear power plants, providing sufficient confidence that income achieved will provide an adequate return on investment. |
As nuclear programmes are launched, by 2015- 20. |
|
|
|
1.2.4 |
To the extent possible, facilitate the construction of standardised designs for nuclear power plants worldwide by harmonising regulatory design requirements. In particular, countries introducing new nuclear programmes should avoid imposing unique requirements. |
Common requirements should be established from 2020. |
|
|
|
1.3 |
Industrial Development, Education, and Training |
|||
|
1.3.1 |
For countries launching or re-activating nuclear programmes, ensure that suitably qualified and skilled human resources are available to meet the anticipated needs of the nuclear programme, including in government, electricity utilities, industry, and regulatory agencies. Countries with major nuclear industries will also need sufficient human resources to support nuclear exports. |
Action by 2015 to ensure a significant increase before 2020. |
|
|
|
1.3.2 |
For countries without an existing nuclear industry, provide support to domestic industry in developing capacities and expertise to participate effectively as sub-contractors and component suppliers in nuclear power plant projects both at home and abroad. Given the global nature of supply chains for nuclear construction, almost all countries will require the participation of foreign suppliers. |
For relevant countries, by 2015- 20. |
|
|
|
1.4 |
Technology Development and Deployment: |
|||
|
1.4.1 |
Develop where necessary and implement plans for the long term management and disposal of all types of radioactive wastes, in particular for the construction and operation of geological repositories for spent fuel and high-level waste. This includes providing support for required RD&D activities. |
The first repositories to be in operation by 2020, with other major nuclear countries following before 2030. |
|
|
|
1.4.2 |
Continue to support RD&D of advanced nuclear technology (reactors and fuel cycles) to capture its long-term potential to provide sustainable energy with improved economics, enhanced safety and reliability, and stronger proliferation resistance and physical protection. |
Demonstrate the most promising next generation nuclear systems by 2030, with full commercialisation after 2040. |
|
|
|
2 |
ACTIONS LED BY THE NUCLEAR AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDISTRIES |
|||
|
2.1 |
Managing the Existing Nuclear Fleet: |
|||
|
2.1.1 |
While continuing to operate existing nuclear plants safely and efficiently, invest in upgrading and preparing for extended lifetimes where feasible. To this end, ensure that lessons learned are widely disseminated among nuclear plant operators. |
Ongoing, with significant investment needed by 2015. |
|
|
|
2.2 |
Deploying New Nuclear Capacity by 2020: |
|||
|
2.2.1 |
Fully establish the latest nuclear power plant designs by constructing reference plants in a few countries around the world, to refine the basic design and any regional variants, and build up global supply chains and capacities. |
Several new designs now under construction will be in operation by 2015; others to follow in the next few years. |
|
|
|
2.2.2 |
Go on to demonstrate that these new designs can be reliably built on time and within expected costs, making continuous efforts to reduce construction times and control costs by using standardised designs to the extent possible, refining the construction process and further strengthening supply chains. |
Demonstrate the ability to build standardised designs on time and to cost by 2020. |
|
|
|
2.3 |
Capacity Building for Rapid Expansion after 2020: |
|||
|
2.3.1 |
Invest in building up industrial capacities in the nuclear and related engineering industries worldwide to increase the global capability to build nuclear power plants, broadening supply chains while maintaining the necessary high quality and safety standards. A commensurate increase in skilled human resources will also be needed. |
Significant investment needed by 2015 if global capacity is to double from present levels by 2020. |
|
|
|
2.3.2 |
Expand uranium production and the capacity of nuclear fuel cycle facilities in line with the growth of nuclear generating capacity, including the deployment of more efficient advanced technologies where available. |
Major capacity expansion needed by 2015-20 and beyond. |
|
|
|
2.4 |
Technology Development and Deployment: |
|||
|
2.4.1 |
While capturing the benefits of replicating standardised designs to the extent possible, continue the evolutionary development of reactor and nuclear fuel designs to benefit from experience gained in building reference plants and from technological advances, to ensure that nuclear power remains competitive. |
Lessons learned from reference plants will be available from 2015; major changes to standardised designs unlikely before 2020. |
|
|
|
2.4.2 |
In co-operation with nuclear research institutes, participate in the development of next generation nuclear systems (reactors and fuel cycles), to ensure that the designs selected for demonstration are those most suitable for eventual commercialisation. |
Demonstrate the most promising systems by 2030, with full commercialisation after 2040. |
|
|
|
3 |
ACTIONS LED BY OTHER STAKEHOLDERS |
|||
|
3.1 |
Financing Nuclear Power Plants: |
|||
|
3.1.1 |
Enhance the ability of the global financial community to assess the investment risks involved in nuclear power projects, to develop appropriate financing structures, and to provide suitable financial terms for nuclear investments. Participation in the financing of early nuclear construction projects will help strengthen nuclear expertise in the financial sector |
Develop increased expertise by participating in nuclear projects by 2020. Increase the availability of private sector finance after 2020. |
|
|
|
3.2 |
International Cooperation: |
|||
|
3.2.1 |
Maintain and strengthen where necessary international cooperation in areas such as institution-building in countries planning new nuclear programmes, harmonisation of regulatory requirements, radioactive waste management and disposal, development of advanced reactor and fuel cycle technologies, non-proliferation and nuclear law, physical protection of nuclear facilities and materials, and security of nuclear fuel supply. |
Important issues need to be addressed in the 2015-20 timeframe if nuclear expansion is to become sufficiently broad-based after 2020. |
|
|
The focus of the proposed Action Plan is on the deployments of the nuclear power technologies extensively in order to meet the targets that will take every major country and sector of the economy to make it happen. The following table indicates the proposed estimated contributions that are expected from all stakeholders around the world:
Estimates from IEA ETP Model for Investment in Nuclear Energy in the BLUE MAP Scenario (Constant 2008 USD):
|
No |
Region/Country |
Estimated Investment Required (USD Billions) |
||||
|
2010-2020 |
2020-2030 |
2030-2040 |
2040-2050 |
Total |
||
|
1 |
United States & Canada |
75 |
342 |
243 |
224 |
884 |
|
2 |
OECD Europe |
60 |
333 |
105 |
88 |
586 |
|
3 |
OECD Pacific |
68 |
296 |
153 |
97 |
614 |
|
4 |
China |
57 |
193 |
295 |
350 |
895 |
|
5 |
India |
9 |
57 |
91 |
230 |
387 |
|
6 |
Latin America |
11 |
30 |
36 |
39 |
116 |
|
7 |
Other Developing Asia |
5 |
39 |
24 |
39 |
107 |
|
8 |
Economies in Transition |
55 |
156 |
80 |
39 |
330 |
|
9 |
Africa and Middle East |
2 |
23 |
18 |
12 |
55 |
|
World |
342 |
1,469 |
1,045 |
1,118 |
3,974 |
|
It is mentioned in the Technology Roadmap report that the estimated total investments (USD 3,974) in nuclear power represent about 19% of the total estimated investment in electricity generating capacity in BLUE Map of USD 21 trillion over the period.
A recent major study by the IEA and NEA of projected electricity generating costs for almost
200 proposed power plants in 17 OECD and 4 non-OECD countries for commissioning in 2015 found that nuclear electricity is generally competitive with other generating options on a “levelized” lifetime cost basis (IEA/NEA, 2010). Despite this, in many cases financing the construction of new nuclear power plants is expected to be a major challenge, especially in the context of liberalized electricity markets (NEA, 2009).
The Technology Roadmap identified 23 action items that are classified into the following three categories: Governments and other Public Bodies; The Nuclear and Electricity Supply Industries; and Other Stakeholders. In the final analysis, while every action identified in the Roadmap is important for the overall success of the initiative, the following are considered to be the critical success factors:
-
Financing Nuclear Plants:
It is true that nuclear power plants are not only expensive but they also take a long time to build them. Acquiring the very large investments for building nuclear power plants in many countries could present a major challenge. However, the good news is that once those plants are in operation, they have relatively low and predictable fuel, operating and maintaining costs. The new generation of reactors expected to be relatively less expensive and more efficient to generate cheaper electricity. Furthermore, those reactors will also help reduce cumulative CO2 emissions from the electricity sector. Following the example of the USA, government support, such as loan guarantees, may be needed in some cases to help secure large investments. Price stability in electricity and carbon markets will also encourage investments in nuclear plants;
-
Investing in Research Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RDD&D):
It is true that billions of dollars are already invested in the research and development of nuclear technology around the world and the inventions of the 4th. Generation reactors and related technologies are an excellent example of those investments. However, with the aggressive targets to accelerate the nuclear electricity around the world will require universities and research institutions to continue to support RD&D of advanced nuclear technology (Reactors and Fuel Cycles) to capture its long-term potential to provide sustainable energy with improved economics, enhanced safety and reliability, and stronger proliferation resistance and physical protection. The focus here is to accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specific technology into the marketplace; and
-
Investing in Human Capital:
It is true that some visionary universities around the world are focused on teaching and training students to create a pool of nuclear expertise which could be deployed anywhere in the world. However, there is a need for more universities to recognize the fact that the only way nuclear industry can be expanded if qualified human resources, including highly qualified scientists, engineers, and skilled craft people are available. Utilities regulators, governments and other stakeholders will also need more nuclear specialists. Industry recruitment and training programmes will need to be stepped up. Governments and universities have a vital role to play in developing human resources.
Once again, this is indeed an excellent strategic opportunity for the universities, colleges, and research institutions around the world to start thinking about how best they can prepare themselves to live up with the future nuclear challenges and become active partners in the energy economy.
Peaceful ways to use Nuclear Energy 